A Year After BRELL: A Calm Start, a “Stress Test,” and Lessons for the Battery and Solar Boom

A year after the Baltic states’ disconnection from the BRELL ring, Lithuania can not only symbolically mark the anniversary but also evaluate the result quite calmly: the electricity system operated stably, and pessimistic forecasts of a “collapsing world” did not come true. However, one episode this year – the 20 January incident in Estonia – became a real reality check, revealing how much is determined today by infrastructure reserves, cross-border links, and the integration of next-generation solutions, particularly battery parks, into the grid.

This was stated in an interview for the Verslo žinios podcast Verslo tribūna by Mindaugas Jablonskis, Associate Partner at the law firm GLIMSTEDT, energy law and market regulation expert, and lecturer of EU energy law at Vilnius University.

We disconnected not only physically, but also culturally

According to M. Jablonskis, disconnecting from the system managed by Russia and Belarus was more than a technical act. In his assessment, the Baltic states “disconnected culturally” as well – from the working standards, the mentality, and the sense of dependence long reinforced by narratives suggesting the region would be unsafe without the old system.

“We have been living disconnected from Russia and Belarus for a year. In my view, Lithuanian engineers and the public do not yet fully realise: we disconnected not only physically – we also disconnected in our subconscious,” the expert said.

He emphasized the other side: along with the disconnection from the Soviet system, a long-standing engineering culture also departed, in which Lithuania, in his view, was regarded as a symbol of a highly reliable electricity sector.

Evaluating the year after the disconnection, the interviewee acknowledged that a few price spikes occurred, which critics tried to present as a consequence of the decoupling. However, he described these as episodic peaks rather than a long-term trend.

M. Jablonskis stated that this is also influenced by the fact that part of the generation and infrastructure is not yet fully adapted to the new regime: modernization is needed, as well as more flexible capacities capable of reacting quickly to the market rather than operating according to the “large-caliber” logic historically tailored for a different type of grid management.

20 January in Estonia: a battery test that nearly ended in a regional outage

The expert identified the 20 January event in Estonia as the greatest practical “stress test,” when, according to him, while connecting a large battery park south of Tallinn to the grid, instead of the expected stabilization, power grid fluctuations began.

In his account, following the incident, the Estlink 1 and Estlink 2 links between Estonia and Finland disconnected one after another, resulting in a loss of approximately one thousand megawatts (1000 MW) of power. Such a scenario, according to M. Jablonskis, is dangerous because grids are typically designed to withstand the disconnection of a single element (N-1), not two simultaneously.

In this situation, he stated, the Lithuanian-Polish link played a critical role, as it managed to compensate for the power loss at that time and helped avoid a total blackout.

“The Lithuanian link with Poland saved the Baltic region from a blackout this time. At that moment, it operated at higher power and provided electricity to prevent the grid from going dark,” said M. Jablonskis.

The expert did not mince words: in his assessment, the success of projects like the link with Poland does not happen “by itself.” It is the result of engineering solutions, reserve planning, and withstanding political and managerial pressures.

“On the occasion of February 16th [Lithuania’s Independence Day], the engineers and designers who planned the Lithuanian-Polish link could be awarded medals and orders – for designing it with a reserve, with a buffer, not cutting costs where saving would be dangerous,” he emphasized.

Solar, batteries, and inverters: the old logic is no longer enough

Another essential topic is the transformation of energy production. According to M. Jablonskis, the grid is transitioning from inertial generation to inverter-based generation (solar, batteries), which requires a different type of management.

He explained that when integrating battery parks, synchronization is vital: if the “supplied phase” does not coincide with the grid phase, fluctuations can occur in the system. He identified this scenario as a possible explanation for the 20 January 2026 incident, which subsequently leads to financial consequences – from expensive second-by-second reserves to the question of who will compensate for the additional costs.

Summarizing the year after the BRELL disconnection, M. Jablonskis evaluated the result as very good – especially the contribution of the engineering chain and the specialists who actually performed the work. At the same time, he emphasized that the future tasks are already clear: grid modernization, smarter protection, clearer connection policies, technology testing regimes, and a shift in standards.